Lady-Luck
Bei
Warren
Weaver, Lady Luck, The Theorie of Probability,
liest man:
Suppose
you offer a friend a bet. You tell him that he can open
at random any volume (such as the World Almanac) which contains tables of all
sorts of numbers -the populations of the counties of the U.S., or the
areas of seas, or the highest and lowest altitudes in each state, or the
students enrolled in all the colleges and universities, or the motor vehicle
deaths by states, or whatever.
From such
a table you and he agree to pick out twenty numbers -
the first twenty, or every other one until you have twenty - or according to any
other scheme.
You say-
"Now
you are my friend, and I want to treat you right. There are nine integers 1
through 9, and nine can't be divided evenly. So I will give you a generous
proposition.
For
every number that begins with 1, 2, 3, or 4, you pay me $1.
For
every number that begins with 5, 6, 7, 8, or 9 I will pay you $1.
I pay on
five numbers and you pay on only four, which just proves how generous I
am."